Aug 26 (Reuters) – With interest rate cuts virtually locked in, investors are ramping up their focus on economic data over the next few months as they game out whether the “soft landing” narrative that has helped drive U.S. stocks in 2024 can continue.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the “time has come” to begin lowering interest rates – a more dovish message than many investors had believed they would hear at the central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. That process will likely begin next month, with a 25 basis-point cut at the Fed’s monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18.
The comments are far from an all-clear signal. With the S&P 500 (.SPX) up 18% on the year and equities richly valued, market participants will need to see continued evidence that the economy is gliding to a soft landing, where growth remains resilient while inflation cools.
“What the market wanted was to hear that the rate-cutting cycle is starting,” said Alessio de Longis, senior portfolio manager and head of investments at Invesco Solutions.
However, “is the Fed telling us that they’re actually worried about the economy now? And if that is the case, maybe the excitement about the cutting cycle should take a different perspective.”
History shows that stocks tend to…
