Key Takeaways
- The government looks increasingly likely to shut down as soon as this weekend after President-elect Donald Trump quashed a government funding bill lawmakers had negotiated.
- A government shutdown could be disruptive, especially for anyone using government services, but economists predict its economic impact would be small.
- The costliest government shutdown in history set the economy back $3 billion, equivalent to the yearly sales of Pennsylvania’s state-run wine and spirits stores.
A government shutdown as soon as this weekend could disrupt crucial services, but would likely have a limited impact on the overall economy, experts say.
The odds of a government shutdown spiked late this week after President-elect Donald Trump and advisor Elon Musk urged congressional Republicans to scrap a last-minute budget they had reached with Democrats to extend a funding deadline before it expires Saturday. A compromise bill endorsed by Trump failed to pass in the House of Representatives Thursday night.
Gamblers on the betting website Polymarket were pricing a 61% chance of a shutdown Friday morning, up from just a 7% chance on Tuesday. Economists see less of a chance, with Moody’s Analytics’ forecasters estimating a 30% chance of a shutdown.
If the funding deadline passes without action from Congress, some government services will shut down, while others will continue. Social Security checks will continue to go out, the military will continue to operate, and interest will…
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