While the Trump administration is optimistic about the country’s growth prospects—Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick going so far as to say Americans should “absolutely not” prepare for a recession—economists are voicing gloomy forecasts.
Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi on Thursday compared the current levels of uncertainty to those seen during 9/11 and the 2008 financial crash, having previously said that he felt the country was being “pushed into a recession” by Donald Trump‘s tariff policies.
What Are the Main Recession Indicators Saying?
With input from U.S. economists, Newsweek has identified the five key indicators that experts are monitoring to evaluate the likelihood of an economic downturn.
Consumer Confidence
Economist Gary Hufbauer told Newsweek that measures of consumer confidence are among the most important gauges of the country’s economic wellbeing.
Optimism about the state of the economy, and one’s personal finances, translate into consumer spending, estimated to account for over two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP).
“A change in feelings about the economic backdrop is often a harbinger of things to come and precedes a downshift in consumer spending and business investment,” according to Jeffrey Roach of LPL Financial.
The Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence Index, arguably the most commonly consulted measure, saw a 7.2-point drop between February and March. This reading, which came in below expectations, marked the fourth…
