CANFIELD, Ohio – As long as there are a plentiful number of available jobs in the labor market, the U.S. economy should be able to weather any turbulence by virtue of sustained consumer wealth, an economist for First National Bank said Thursday.
“I’m optimistic,” Ahmed El Nokali, managing director of capital markets at FNB said after delivering remarks at the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber’s annual Economic Forecast breakfast at Waypoint 4180. “I know it’s tough to be sometimes when we get the headwinds, but I think from the fundamentals going into 2024, I’m relatively optimistic.”
El Nokali said that should the U.S. economy fall into recession, the overall strength of the banking sector, the surplus of job openings across the country and consumer spending are likely to make it a very short and shallow one.
“We have a labor shortage,” he said. “Under that premise, I do believe with jobs aplenty, the consumer will keep powering the economy forward into 2024 and beyond.”
Today, there are 1.5 jobs available for every one unemployed person in the labor market, he added, down from more than two jobs for every unemployed person earlier in the pandemic recovery.
Those that left the workforce during the pandemic are returning, he said, especially women between ages 25 and 54. “Some are coming back,” he said. “Men’s participation rate is picking up but still has a way to get to levels where we were two decades…
