It’s US election year, and the first Republican primaries are today,
What can we say at this stage about how the race is going?
First, it’s not the economy, stupid.
At least not at the moment.
Not that either side will say that. Or even mean it. And not that it’s even true that it isn’t the economy.
The great unasked question of this election is: what is the economy?
By most official metrics, the people of the USA have grounds for that hackneyed phrase – cautious optimism.
Inflation’s down, job creation is ticking over, overall GDP numbers are strong – among the strongest in the Western world, and the US dollar, though beggared in general over the past few years hasn’t had such a bad run lately.
That’s the good news.
The questionable news is: how much are Americans really feeling it?
First off, not all the data is as benign as it seems. Jobs, for example, can seem more numerous because more people are having to take more than one job to make ends meet.
While the inflation rate may have dropped back significantly, the prices that rose haven’t fallen, or at least most of them haven’t. The evidence that Americans are being paid more to compensate for last year’s heavy increase in expenses is scant – and see the previous point.
Nevertheless, Joe Biden can plausibly say the economy is improving, or in better shape, or whatever other euphemism you want to use, stupid.
The problem isn’t so much that. It’s the messaging.
What a few…
