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The prevailing story of a strong US economy hasn’t changed much in the past year as economic data has persistently topped Wall Street’s expectations.
Friday’s March jobs report was more of the same.
The economy added 303,000 jobs during the month, nearly 100,000 more than consensus expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, hovering near a historically low level, while the percentage of Americans participating in the workforce increased.
“The data leaves us borderline speechless,” Jefferies US economist Tom Simons wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “We were optimistic about the payroll numbers coming into today based on recent trends in jobless claims and momentum from prior months, but we did not expect to see such strong data around the periphery and within the details.”
It’s the latest in a recent string of positive economic news. Earlier this week, data showed the manufacturing sector has entered expansion territory. Meanwhile, the hiring rate is at a steady pace seen prior to the pandemic and layoffs have held in a low range, signaling no sign of a slowdown in labor market activity. This comes as labor productivity is picking up for the first time in 15 years.
All of these incremental pieces have forecasters boosting their outlook for US economic growth for 2024. Consensus now sees quarter-over-quarter real economic growth coming in at 2% for the first three months of the year, up from the 1.8% projection seen in March.
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