Forecasts for the November employment report center on a rebound in the jobs market from the October reading, which was depressed by special factors.
Economists predict an increase in nonfarm payroll employment of 215,000 in November, according to FactSet. That would follow an increase of just 12,000 in October, which was far below the forecast of 120,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that hurricanes Helene and Milton and strikes in the manufacturing sector likely depressed hiring activity.
“We had a really low number in October … so we’re expecting a big recovery,” says José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “Overall, the economy is in good shape.” He predicts the economy added 190,000 jobs in November.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. A sharp jump in the unemployment rate this past summer raised fears of a recession, but those concerns have faded.
Despite the rebound in job growth and progress toward reducing inflation seemingly stalling in recent months, the Federal Reserve is still expected to announce an interest-rate cut on Dec. 18, following its next meeting.
Monthly Payroll Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data as of Nov. 30 2024
April Jobs Report Forecast Highlights
- Jobs report release date and time: Friday, Dec. 6 at 8:30 a.m. EST
- Nonfarm payroll employment is forecast to rise 215,000 vs. a 12,000 increase in October, according to FactSet.
- The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady…
