By Professor Michael Clarke, military analyst
No military options come without complications and though the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) are undoubtedly strong, they face many complications in considering whether, and how, to strike back against Iran’s barrage of drones and missiles launched against them at the weekend.
Many strategic analysts in the IDF argue the Iranian attack showed that deterrence had failed and therefore must be restored with a strong attack that would make Israel’s enemies fear to provoke it again. Others have maintained that taking the risk that Israel could be pulled into a greater conflict with Iran at such a critical juncture in the Gaza war risks falling into exactly the trap Hamas was trying to set for Israel on 7 October – a general war in which Israel’s very existence would be at stake.
So Israel’s response will have to be carefully calibrated. A non-military response might involve economic and diplomatic pressures, building on the wide international consensus that roundly condemns this barrage of drones and missiles that Iran fired at Israel. Such an approach would win favour in the international community but might be very difficult for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to sell to his hard-liners.
A military response might range from attacks on Revolutionary Guard individuals and facilities as they operate in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. This would act as a signal to Tehran, but not attack Iranian territory…
