Analysis: ‘Take the win’ is off the table – there’s little doubt Israel will respond
By Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent
There is little doubt in diplomatic and political circles here that Israel will carry out a reprisal attack on Iran.
David Cameron, on a short visit to Jerusalem, said as much in TV interviews.
The questions remain when and where. Israeli leaders are keeping that very close, not even telling visiting foreign ministers from allied countries, but it might be that no final decision has been made.
Cameron is canny enough to know that if he came here pushing a message of “don’t do it” then he might be shown up as ineffective in the coming days.
And so the language has changed to “okay, if you have to do it, then make sure it’s reasonable and doesn’t escalate matters further”.
With the US and European capitals saying the same (the German foreign minister was here today too), it might have some sway.
Israel says it needs to send Iran a clear message but doesn’t want an escalation – that’s all very well but Iran might not see it like that.
Assuming the do-nothing, “take-the-win” option is off the table, the next best outcome is for a series of increasingly smaller events that ultimately see this crisis fizzle out.
I’ve also picked up frustration among diplomats over political attempts back in the UK to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as…
