- If the Fed meets market expectations and starts cutting aggressively in 2024 it likely will be against a backdrop of a sharply slowing economy and rising unemployment.
- Market pricing has grown even more aggressive on Fed policy easing, with fed funds futures now pointing to five quarter-percentage-point rate cuts next year.
- “The market keeps trying to front-run these rate cuts, only to be disappointed,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building during a renovation in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2023.
Valerie Plesch | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Interest rate cuts don’t happen during good times, something important for markets to remember amid hotly anticipated easing next year from the Federal Reserve.
If the Fed meets market expectations and starts cutting aggressively in 2024, it likely will be against a backdrop of a sharply slowing economy and rising unemployment, which in turn would bring lower inflation.
Central bank policymakers, however, won’t cut for the sake of cutting. There will have to be a compelling reason to start easing, and even then rate decreases are likely to come slowly — unless something breaks, and the Fed is forced into more aggressive action.
“The market keeps trying to front-run these rate cuts, only to be disappointed,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. “In a different cycle, when inflation hadn’t spiked so much, I think the Fed would…
