- Thursday morning will see the release of the first estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product, which is expected to post a 4.7% annualized gain.
- Policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations.
- Since last year, the bond market has been sending a strong signal it thinks a recession is coming.
People shop along Broadway in Manhattan on July 27, 2023 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
The U.S. economy likely turned in another strong performance heading into the final part of the year, though what’s ahead could be significantly different.
Gross domestic product, or the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. economy, is expected to post a 4.7% annualized gain for the third quarter, according to a Dow Jones consensus estimate. The Commerce Department will release its first estimate of GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET.
If the projection is correct, it will be the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021, when growth was just shy of 7%.
However, policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations.
“We ought to look at whatever we print in the third quarter with a large degree of suspicion,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. “GDP doesn’t tell us where we’re going. We can feel all warm and fuzzy about a good number. But the real problem is what’s…
