7.3 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of total new community solar installations are expected to come online in existing state markets by 2029 in the US, according to the latest report released by Wood Mackenzie in collaboration with the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA). Cumulative national community solar installations will break 14 GWdc by 2029.
Program pipelines remain strong in mature state markets, which is supporting near-term growth. However, mature markets cannot sustain annual growth in the long-term as they continue to saturate. Wood Mackenzie forecasts the national community solar market to grow at an average rate of 5% annually through 2026 and then contract by 11% on average through 2029. Expanded program capacity and the establishment of new state markets have the potential to add further uplift beyond 2026.
‘The US community solar market has tripled in size since 2020, but growth is beginning to slow in existing state markets. Additionally, the May 2024 decision on California community solar resulted in a significant 14% reduction to Wood Mackenzie’s five-year national outlook. Without a major market entrant like California, long-term community solar growth will largely depend on the enactment of legislation to enable new state markets,’ said Caitlin Connolly, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, and lead author of the report.
Under a bull case forecast scenario, Wood Mackenzie’s five-year outlook increases by 21% in existing markets…
