As the stretch run begins in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, overseas betting markets have put former president Donald Trump in a position he’s never enjoyed after Labor Day: Ahead.
Trump, the Republican nominee, holds a slight lead over Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in two of the largest betting markets: Betfair Exchange, the biggest peer-to-peer U.K. betting platform, and Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform. The Trump’s odds widened to 53-46 on Polymarket in the past few days.
The presidential election betting – which legally can’t be done in the U.S. – clashes with recent polling of the U.S. electorate:
◾ A new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll, gives Harris a 48%-43% advantage that’s still within the poll’s margin of error. The poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken by landline and cell phone Aug. 25-28 – about a week after the Democratic National Convention.
◾ Real Clear Politics’ polling average has put Harris a couple points ahead of Trump since the August convention. Trump had a nearly 3-point lead over President Joe Biden before Biden dropped out of the race.
2024 polling averages give Harris slight edge in recent weeks
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Are bettors or voters offering the best signals?
How do you square the conflicting signals from gambling markets and polling of voters?
Harry Crane, a Rutgers University statistics professor, has studied election outcomes since 2016 and compared those to the predictions of polling…
