(Reuters) – Talk of a potential recession is dominating the airwaves and driving frantic action across financial markets, meaning Friday’s U.S. employment report for June will be pored over by investors, politicians and average workers for any signs that the strongest job market in generations is running out of steam.
The worry-warts may not find much to fan their anxiety, if the economists forecasting the key components of the Labor Department’s data are to be believed, even as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to contain it through interest rate hikes keep blood pressure high on Main Street and Wall Street.
For one, the private sector – accounting for 85% of all U.S. jobs – may have returned last month to a record level of employment for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in early 2020. And while job creation likely slowed, it is seen having remained well above the pre-pandemic trend and the jobless rate is forecast to have held fast near half-century lows.
Here are five key factors to eyeball in the report.
RECORD PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT?
Total U.S. employment in May of more than 151 million was still more than 800,000 jobs short of the February 2020 record high. The expectation for nearly 270,000 new jobs in June would further trim that deficit, but is unlikely to close it altogether.
The big news may be in the private sector. According to the Reuters forecast for 240,000 new positions, private employment should climb to nearly 130 million and erase…
